Thursday Catchup: 5/15/25

Buenas, goofs. Let’s talk about this week, one I would say had the vibes of: yuh oh.

Among the professional talkers, I think there’s a creeping dread settling in. What if a bunch of this initial Trump barrage sticks? What if there really is no handbrake in the administration? Will midterms get things back to normal? Will a Democratic president even be able to repair this damage?

And… we don’t know! I don’t know how you feel, but I think there’s a version where we spend a decade repairing the damage and a version where this is simply the end of what America was for 200 years. I hope the former is true, but it also requires punishing MAGA at a level that most white Americans are not comfortable with (see: The Lost Cause Myth of the Civil War).

Anyway, what’s going on:

1 — The Republicans Attempt To Do The Basic Work Of Passing A Budget

Republicans have control of the House, the Senate, and the White House. So they should be able, with the magic of “reconciliation” budgeting, pass whatever they want.

And yet they’re having a hard time. You’re probably seeing a lot of this on your feed right now:

Gotta be honest, I know something is wrong with Mike Lawler’s beard but I can’t tell what it is. Is it the texture? Something about how he’s getting it cut? That incredibly sharp cheek lineup? He looks like a kid who got into the stage makeup cabinet to try to buy some peach schnapps at the local package store. [One more descriptor and I start to morph into Dennis Miller.]

It’s really tempting to dive into the Capitol intrigue on big bills like this — the idea that it could all fall apart at any moment is exciting! And even worse, it’s a potential future where the things we want to happen do happen, without us doing anything! Really tempting copium / wishcasting.

But most of the time, especially in Trump 2.0… they just end up voting for it. Sometimes it takes an angry phone call from the President but when push comes to shove they do what the White House wants. And the White House wants a budget — in some ways, it doesn’t totally matter what’s IN the budget, they just need it to get passed so they can say they passed it. There are interesting conflicts, for sure. SALT deductions, debt ceiling lifts, tax cuts, and whatever they’re doing to Medicare and Medicaid.

But until we see an actual sustained break with Trump on a bill or a cabinet confirmation, it’s all just talk. And somewhere in the bones of OMGreg is the cardinal rule of Only Get Really Worried About Things They DO, Not Things They SAY.

This thing will be bad, and it’ll likely pass, and if National Democrats are smart (they are not) they’ll highlight the pain where they can:

(sicko meme) YESSS! YESSSSS!!!! Move up those work requirements! Kick 8 million people off Medicaid right now before the midterms!!!

2— The Supreme Court Is Not What You Think It is.

This is a real Greg Iwinski hobby horse: the Supreme Court is nine people. There is a lot of agita-fueled internet shitposting that acts like every vote is set by jersey color and the oral arguments and written decisions don’t actually happen.

That is something dumb people think. And you aren’t dumb. Clearly.

All the oral arguments of SCOTUS are available live, online, to listen to. You can hear these mysterious Democratic Nazghul ask questions and argue with very scared lawyers. And today they ruled on a case about police and shootings. The short version is this — a police officer pulled over a guy who said he didn’t have his license and it was his girlfriend’s car, then that guy opened the door and drove away. The cop jumped onto the doorstep and shot into the car, killing the guy.

The law that was challenged said that when deciding on ‘unreasonable force,’ you could only look at the immediate moment the force was used: once the cop was hanging onto a moving car. The Supreme Court decided, nine to zero, that the scope had to be expanded to include the rest of the interaction and not just the millisecond the cop felt unsafe and then killed a guy.

Some of the conservative justices added a concurring opinion where they made sure to point out how dangerous traffic stops are and how really what else can a cop do but jump onto a car? But they still decided unanimously. How can that happen? The PresidentPumpkin twitter account I follow said that Neil Gorsuch calls Donald Trump every morning to ask for Daddy’s Orders! In reality, it’s not that simple! There are maps galore that show some judges are hardliners and some are more transient. So if you really want a heads up on how a case is going to come down, you have to (drum roll) actively participate in your own citizenship and read about what they’re saying!

3— Another Supreme Court Thing? Greg, Get A New Schtick!

The other thing SCOTUS did today was hear arguments on birthright citizenship. And we don’t need to get as detailed here — you can always look it up — but the Trump admin is getting its ass handed to it with this case. Because most of their arguments were considered and dismissed when we adopted birthright citizenship. It wasn’t “just meant for the children of slaves” which is why it they didn’t write “hey y’all this is just for children of our mistresses slaves.”

Like most legal cases this is hinging on a totally separate kind of technicality — nationwide injunctions. The WH is saying “hey a record number of our EOs are being stopped with nationwide injunctions, we don’t like that.” Is this because they’re doing a bunch of illegal stuff? YES! Clear and loud YES! That’s why this is happening. You complain that the police are wearing out your doorbell as you’re using your living room to package crack cocaine! YOU! ARE! THE PROBLEM!

So before we can get to the merits of citizenship, first we have to have this whole SCOTUS go-around on injunctions, and if a single district judge can halt an executive order (which is not a law OR a bill, it is a directive on how to apply existing law). And listening to it, I’m not sure which way it’s going but certainly isn’t leaning toward “we should get rid of birthright citizenship.” Which does leave on the table “we think it should go through the courts and create a 3 months to 3 years long window where kids are born as non citizens before we rule and then they have to retroactively become citizens.” You hear how nuts that sounds, right? So we’ll see how it plays out.

4— The W Is Back

Saturday kicks off the WNBA season, and it’s the perfect time for you to jump in.

Last season the New York Liberty, my kids’ hometown team and the geographically closest team to my home, won it all. It was great. The parade was fun. Ellie is a GOAT mascot. (Okay, technically an elephant, but you get it.)

The WNBA is finally getting the kind of real estate in the sports media world it deserves, and that makes it even more fun to jump in. Superstars, rivalries, racial subtext, the Caitlin Clark experience… it is everything basketball should be — a reason to anxiously stare at your TV for two hours screaming “that’s a foul!” You don’t even need to pick a team season one — just watch and find your favorite star / team to root for / against.

5— He’s Baaaaaaaaack

Remember how JD Vance killed the Pope?¹ Well, he’s headed back to Rome. Yeah, Vance and Rubio are going to the Pope’s mass on Sunday, I guess to compare what it feels like to be scolded by a native English speaker?

It is really a monumental example of how mentally broken these guys are that Marco Rubio, who has spent all his time this year either persecuting migrants or abandoning Ukrainians, is going to go to the Vatican assuming he’s a good guy who people want to see. It is like me waltzing in to a Weekly Standard Christmas party and asking, “who wants to get me a beer, broskis?”

And you know — you know deep in your bones - that Vance is pacing around his house, forcing the wife he wishes were white to listen to his 10,000 options for a “good opening line” with the new Pope. This is why I think he has some problems running for President — you can feel that he’s trying too hard. He is the 40 Year Old Virgin bragging that boobs feel like “a bad of sand.” So if he has to run in an actual primary, he’s in real trouble. The only way Vance gets anointed to something like The Next MAGA Guy is if

• Trump passes away

• Vance takes over

• Dems win the House

• Vance doesn’t have to DO anything he gets to spend two years blaming Dems.

• He successfully runs as both continuation (MAGA) and change (none of the parts you disliked about MAGA, suburban GOP voters).

Hm. Wonder if Pope Leo will vote absentee.

1  Obviously JD Vance did not kill Pope Francis. But Pope Francis may have hung on just long enough to tell JD what he was doing wrong in person.